A Prediction and a Response

This is not a political web log, but it is personal. I’ve usually avoided political topics here because they haven’t been a big enough part of my life to be worth alienating my friends and family who disagree with me. This election was important and troublesome enough for me, though, that I discarded my usual reticence and vented here. That post generated some thought-provoking responses, and the topic is still on my mind.

My prediction reflects my biggest fears and disappointments in the election. In the war on terror that we are conducting, I see a globalization of the problems behind the ongoing war between Israel and Palestine. I believe the similarities will become more pronounced. Like Israel, we favor a more hard-line leader because it’s easy for a hard-liner to make any opponent who suggests a concession look weak. The aggression then escalates and foments more terrorism in a loop that has continued for decades between Israel and Palestine and is now spreading to become a confrontation between the West and the Middle East.

If I’m suddenly bold enough to make a prediction, I figure I should also think about what I can do to address it. I’ve never been an activist and I’ve never liked it when people try to foist their views on me, so I don’t want to pursue my concerns by doing that myself. I also recognize that my views represent a minority living under a majority rule, and as such I need to find ways to advance my causes independently of the candidate in office.

The thing that comes to mind is to learn from Bush’s success and employ one of his most successful techniques: repetition. To start, I’ve selected a Bush statement that I support – his promise to “bring peace and freedom to the Middle East”. Next, I’ll repeat it as often as I can in whatever media are available to me. If my prediction comes true, the president’s own voice can provide testament to the effectiveness of his current policies. If it doesn’t, I will rexamine my beliefs in humble relief.

So, in a few short miraculous days, I have transformed from a depressed Kerry voter to an enthusiastic Bush supporter! Bring peace and freedom to the Middle East! Bring peace and freedom to the Middle East!

6 responses to “A Prediction and a Response”

  1. There are lots of good quotes like the following from the transcript of Bush and Blair’s recent news conference:

    Prime Minister Blair and I also share a vision of a free, peaceful, a democratic broader Middle East. That vision must include a just and peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict based on two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security.

    I managed to get a Windows Media clip of this quote.

  2. Hello Friends,

    To read the following article, click on the link. (It is in .pdf, so needs Adobe reader.)

    The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy by Stephen F. Freeman, Ph.D., University of Pennsylvania, Nov. 10, 2004.

    This is the most objective and dispassionate discussion of the issue so far; he has the final exit poll figures, not just the early afternoon — all show Kerry winning — and reaches the conclusion that the possibility of the final figures in Ohio, PA, and FL have only a 250 million to one chance of being accurate.


    Not to get repetitive, but it is difficult to see how any course of political action taken before we have put pour voting in safe hands will be effective. It is important beyond words that we stick to it and deal with what happened. I would be wasting your time explaining why.

    julie & michael

  3. What Bush’s repetition gets him, is that people believe whatever it is that he repeats. If you start repeating the we bring peace to the Middle-East, then people will start to believe that that is what’s going on. I believe you’re in the anti-Bush camp, and that’s not the desired effect. I prefer you repeat some like: “Bush is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Iraqi civilians.” Or whatever thing it is that people apparently don’t know that makes it to you so clear why Bush is bad.


  4. I agree that choosing a positive statement to repeat could be misinterpreted. Rather than switch, though, I think I’ll try to always juxtapose the statement with some example of what is actually going on. Make it a stark contrast. And if by some miracle the contrast disappears, all the better!

  5. Regarding the paper on unexplained exit poll figures, I did read it. I don’t disagree that the statistical anomalies presented there are unexplained and deserve investigation. It seems to me, however, that choosing to make a stand based on statistical anomalies of a few percentage points with no evidence of wrongdoing behind them is a poor choice of fight. The green party seems to have taken it up, and I’ll be interested to see how they do. My blog of choice for following this is currently The Command Post, because it links to stories on both sides.

    Because I’ve concluded that neither party is a very good representative of my values, I’m inclined to let them squabble over the margins of error. I think it’s more important to learn how to promote and defend your values as minority, regardless of the majority party in power.

  6. Dear Friends,
    Here are five links — selected from so many– that I believe anyone would want to be aware of who patriotically treasures our American democracy. This is not a partisan issue. I must believe that all sincere Americans, Republican and Democrat, would want to come together to face up to what has happened and take appropriate action to save what we all hold dear.
    The links are below, with a quote from the end of the first one. Recommend read the first one first, and then Keith Obermann, the last one, if you only have so much time. Turn your text size up large, get yourself a cup of relaxing tea, and please read, forward, and share.






    “Zogby pollster Colin Shea [Zogby is by far the most respected pollster at this point, and his results are used by many large corporations for marketing purposes — mb], after thoroughly testing the discrepancies between total registration, turnout, party registration and the official tallies in Florida and Ohio, concluded, “The facts defy all logical explanations save one: massive and systematic voter fraud. We cannot accept the result of the 2004 presidential election as legitimate until these discrepancies are rigorously and completely explained. Until then, George Bush’s shameful legacy will have been that of seizing power through two illegitimate elections conducted on his brother’s watch, and engineering a fundamental corruption at the heart of the greatest democracy the world has known.”

    Election results are not final until electors vote on Dec. 12. The Congress cannot finalize until Jan 7. There is still time to investigate, to find the truth and to swear in legitimately elected President John F. Kerry.

    Blessings, Peace,

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